BTC Up or Down · 5-minute

Resolves via Chainlink BTC/USD · compared here against Binance spot. Up if close ≥ open.

Live BTC Window
… ET
0:00
remaining
Up —Down —
BTC spot · cex$—
Up book
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Down book
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Polymarket · market-implied
Up
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Down
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Exchange spot · BTC/USD
Binance
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Coinbase
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Kraken
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Chainlink oracle
on-chain feed · resolution uses the low-latency data stream
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Live fair-value edge
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BTC vs window open
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Model fair
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Market
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Edge
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Fair-value from a driftless random walk on Binance spot (σ≈—). Educational signal, not advice — resolution is Chainlink, and oracle latency can differ from spot.

Binance agree
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0/0
Divergences
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Binance≠Chainlink
Up / Down
0/0
Streak
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Avg margin
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close−open
Windows
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Volume
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Decided
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Live window · Up-probability vs exchange price
updates every 2s
Up prob—Binance—Coinbase—Kraken—open —
Waiting for the collector to record this window…
Driftless random-walk model
fair-value cone
Waiting for enough recorded ticks to estimate volatility…
Exchange volume over market time
Binance $ volume · ramp to resolution
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Recent window directions
hover for detail
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Market calibration · predicted vs actual
gap = edge
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Up / Down resolution rate
0 windows · — vol
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Biggest last-second skews
click to drill in
Last
0 favorite flips · avg move — · n=0
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Live strategy backtester
over live-recorded windows
Strategy
Entry: T−60s
Threshold6pt

bet the side the random-walk model says is underpriced

Net P&L
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ROI
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Win rate
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Trades
0/0
Max DD
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Sharpe/trade
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No trades under these parameters (loosen the threshold, or wait for more recorded windows).

Educational simulation over 0 live-recorded windows · $100 stake · entry at the recorded Up/Down midpoint. Ignores fees, slippage and fill risk.

Resolved windows · Binance-vs-Chainlink divergence
click a row to drill in
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Account analytics · who profits on BTC 5m
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